> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://offthepace.mintlify.site/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# fct_ghost_race_finish

> One row per (host_constructor, ego_driver, race).

<Note>Part of the [Marts](/transform/families/marts) family.</Note>

One row per (host\_constructor, ego\_driver, race). Projects finishing position if ego driver raced in host constructor's car, ranked by predicted MEAN lap pace (invariant to lap count, so DNF / partial runs are ranked fairly and flagged via is\_short\_run). Filtered to recombination\_confidence ≥ 0.3. Powers "what if" race outcome scenarios.

## Lineage

```mermaid theme={null}
flowchart LR
  fct_ghost_car_pace --> fct_ghost_race_finish
  stg_laps --> fct_ghost_race_finish
  stg_results --> fct_ghost_race_finish
  style fct_ghost_race_finish fill:#e40404,stroke:#e40404,color:#fff
```

## Overview

| Property          | Value                                                                                                            |
| ----------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Layer             | `marts`                                                                                                          |
| Family            | [Marts](/transform/families/marts)                                                                               |
| Contract enforced | No                                                                                                               |
| Tags              | `simulation`, `ghost_car`                                                                                        |
| Upstream          | [`fct_ghost_car_pace`](./fct_ghost_car_pace), [`stg_laps`](../stg/stg_laps), [`stg_results`](../stg/stg_results) |

**16 tests** [guard](/transform/ci/overview) this model  -  14 generic, 2 singular.

## Columns

| Column                           | Type | Nullable | Tests                                                                                                          | Description                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 |
| -------------------------------- | ---- | -------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `ghost_race_id`                  |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural), [`unique`](/transform/ci/structural)                                   | Surrogate PK = MD5(race\_year \|\| race\_id \|\| ego\_driver\_id \|\| host\_constructor\_id)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                |
| `is_self_scenario`               |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural)                                                                         | True when ego driver is placed in their own constructor's car (degenerate identity).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |
| `predicted_finish_position`      |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural), [`expect_column_values_to_be_between`](/transform/ci/range-and-domain) | Projected finish position within this host-constructor scenario (ranked by mean pace).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      |
| `actual_finish_position`         |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | Actual finishing position, sourced from official classified results (stg\_results) classified finishers get their official position, retirements get NULL. Falls back to the legacy last-valid-lap position only for races not yet in stg\_results (see finish\_from\_results).                                             |
| `actual_is_dnf`                  |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | True when official results classify the driver as a retirement (NULL position). FALSE when results absent.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  |
| `actual_dnf_cause`               |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | Coarse DNF cause from stg\_results ('racing'/'mechanical'/'non\_classified'); NULL for finishers or races without results.                                                                                                                                                                                                  |
| `finish_from_results`            |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | True when actual\_finish\_position came from official classified results; False when it fell back to the lap-derived position.                                                                                                                                                                                              |
| `delta_vs_actual_position`       |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | Projected minus actual finish position. Negative = would have finished higher. NULL when the driver has no real finishing position (DNF).                                                                                                                                                                                   |
| `predicted_mean_lap_s`           |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural)                                                                         | Mean predicted lap time across counted laps; the ranking key.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               |
| `predicted_mean_residual_pace_s` |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural)                                                                         | Mean fuel-adjusted predicted pace (AVG of fct\_ghost\_car\_pace's predicted\_residual\_pace\_s over counted laps). The ranking key for assert\_ghost\_self\_scenario\_rank so drivers aren't ranked on raw pace that conflates fuel load with true speed.                                                                   |
| `actual_mean_residual_pace_s`    |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural)                                                                         | Mean fuel-adjusted actual pace (AVG of actual\_residual\_pace\_s over counted laps).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |
| `lap_coverage`                   |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | laps\_counted / race\_distance\_laps in \[0,1]; fraction of the race the driver contributes.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                |
| `is_short_run`                   |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural)                                                                         | True when lap\_coverage \< ghost\_short\_run\_threshold (default 0.5) DNF / partial run.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    |
| `avg_recombination_confidence`   |      | Yes      |                                                                                                                | Coverage-weighted lap confidence (n/(n+50) heuristic × sqrt coverage), used by the Counterfactual Championship and Hidden Performance app features. Coexists with the finer-grained SE columns below rather than being replaced by them.                                                                                    |
| `predicted_mean_lap_se_s`        |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural), [`expect_column_values_to_be_between`](/transform/ci/range-and-domain) | Marginal standard error (seconds) of predicted\_mean\_lap\_s, propagating host structural-pace SE, host/ego deg-slope posterior sds, host/ego cliff-shift SEs (scaled by tyre-age and past-cliff exposure), and the finite-sample SE of the lap mean. Includes the host-pace term that cancels in within-scenario ordering. |
| `p_beats_next`                   |      | Yes      | [`expect_column_values_to_be_between`](/transform/ci/range-and-domain)                                         | Probability this driver finishes ahead of the driver ranked immediately below it in this scenario, under a normal approximation on the pairwise pace gap (host structural pace cancels). NULL for the last-ranked driver (no one below). ≥ 0.5 by construction since the driver above always has the lower predicted pace.  |
| `finish_pos_se`                  |      | Yes      | [`not_null`](/transform/ci/structural), [`expect_column_values_to_be_between`](/transform/ci/range-and-domain) | Standard error of the projected finish position the Poisson-binomial sd of the number of drivers predicted ahead (sqrt of sum p\_k(1-p\_k) over pairwise order probabilities). 0 when the scenario has a single driver.                                                                                                     |