fct_lap_residuals pipeline that runs across all 168 races in the 2018–2024 dataset, and every finding must pass the CI-enforced additive identity before it is published.
What an attributed finding is
The seven-term decomposition separates each lap time into fuel load, tyre compound age, rubber state, ambient conditions, constructor pace, dirty-air penalty, and driver skill residual. On any single race weekend, those seven terms tell you exactly what a driver contributed versus what the car, the tyres, and the strategy handed them. An attributed finding applies that decomposition to a specific race, isolates the key strategic or competitive moment, and reports the result in seconds not adjectives. The methodology behind every term is documented in the Seven-Term Identity reference; the findings here are where that methodology meets real race outcomes.Why these matter
Lap time alone is a blunt instrument. Two drivers can post identical lap times for completely different reasons: one fighting degraded tyres while the other cruises on fresh rubber, one extracting every tenth in clean air while the other loses pace in a dirty wake. Without decomposition, a commentator watching those numbers scroll by sees parity. The model sees the opposing forces that cancel each other out and makes them visible. Attributed findings demonstrate that the framework produces meaningful, non-trivial insights on actual race data not a theoretical construction that looks clean in a notebook but dissolves when applied to the noise of a real grand prix. If the decomposition can cleanly separate strategy advantage from driver execution at São Paulo 2021, it can do the same across every race in the dataset.The primary case study: Hamilton vs Verstappen, São Paulo 2021
The São Paulo 2021 Brazilian Grand Prix is the first and flagship attributed finding. Lewis Hamilton started tenth after a grid penalty and won by 10.5 seconds. Commentary called it brilliant driving. The decomposition finds the precise split. The key finding: Mercedes’ third pit stop on lap 44 manufactured a 2.91 s structural tyre advantage by the final lap. On the overtake lap itself (lap 59), the tyre age delta contributed 0.36 s while Hamilton’s driver skill residual contributed 1.60 s strategy and execution in roughly equal measure on the pass that decided the race.São Paulo 2021: strategy vs driver skill, decomposed
Hamilton wins from tenth by 10.5 seconds. The decomposition finds exactly how much came from Mercedes’ pit strategy and how much came from the driver in seconds, not adjectives.