Which circuits suit each car?

A heatmap of how each constructor over- or under-performs at specific circuits relative to their own season average the circuit × constructor interaction term.

Some cars are built for Monza’s straights, others for Monaco’s corners. This heatmap measures that fit directly: for each constructor and circuit, how much they over- or under-perform relative to their own season average the circuit × constructor interaction term. Negative (green) means the car is better than its season average at that circuit; positive (red) means worse.

What it shows

Each cell is one constructor × circuit interaction:

• Interaction term: the deviation of the constructor’s race-average pace from their own season mean at a circuit, estimated with exponentially weighted smoothing and Bayesian shrinkage toward zero (prior weight = 3 races).
• Sign convention: negative = the constructor outperforms their season average at that circuit (green); positive = underperforms (red). Ferrari at Monza, for instance, typically shows a favourable negative interaction from their low-drag setup.
• Average shown: cells display the multi-season average of the race-level interaction, requiring at least 2 races at the circuit to appear.

Constructors are sorted by overall average interaction (lowest first); circuits are sorted alphabetically.

Empty cells indicate fewer than 2 race visits too few to estimate an interaction, not a zero interaction.

How to use it

1. Scan a constructor’s row for their circuit strengths (green) and weaknesses (red).
2. Scan a circuit’s column to see which cars the track flatters.
3. Look for low-drag / high-downforce patterns a car green at Monza and red at Monaco has a clear aero bias.
4. Remember the shrinkage a faint colour on a 2-race cell is mostly prior.

Reading the signal correctly

The interaction is within-constructor: it compares a car to its own season form, so it is not a pace ranking. A midfield car can show a strong positive interaction at a circuit that suits it without ever being quick in absolute terms.

With a prior weight of 3 races, circuits a team has visited only twice are heavily shrunk and faint by design. Read strong colours on high-visit cells, and treat thin cells as directional only.

Data source

The chart queries int_circuit_x_constructor_interaction via DuckDB-Wasm in the browser.

Column	Meaning
interaction_s	Constructor’s circuit pace vs their own season mean (the cell colour)
n_races	Races at the circuit; gates display at ≥ 2
constructor_id / circuit_id	The heatmap axes

The data window covers 2018–2024.

For the full model definition, see the int_circuit_x_constructor_interaction reference.