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The degradation timeline shows how much pace a tyre compound bleeds away as a stint ages, averaged across every clean stint run on that compound in the selected race. It turns a pile of individual stints into one readable curve: this is what the medium did today, and this is how much the field disagreed about how hard to push it.

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What it shows

The chart plots cumulative pace loss against lap-in-stint for each compound:
  • Pace loss curve (expected_compound_pace_s): the average cumulative seconds lost versus lap 1 of the stint, across all clean stints of that compound.
  • Shaded band (±1σ): one standard deviation across stints. A wide band means drivers managed the same tyre very differently fuel-load strategy, push versus save.
  • Cliff onset: the pre-fit lap count at which the degradation model expects exponential onset, taken from dim_compounds_season.
Safety-car, in-lap, out-lap, and wet laps are excluded. Only the normal and clean_cliff anomaly classes are included, which suppresses strategy artefacts (cold out-laps, lift-and-coast in-laps) that would otherwise distort the slope.

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How to use it

  1. Select a race from the filter bar; the curves reload for that event’s compounds.
  2. Compare compounds the gap between the soft and hard curves at a given lap is the tyre-life cost of the faster compound.
  3. Watch the cliff onset marker pace loss accelerates after it; a stop before onset is proactive, a stop after it is reactive.
  4. Read the band width to gauge strategic spread: a tight band means the field agreed on how to run the tyre; a wide band means it was a management lottery.

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Reading the signal correctly

The curve is a field average, not any single driver’s stint a driver who saved heavily and one who pushed are both inside the band, and the mean sits between them. The cliff onset line is a model prior, not an observation of this race.
Compounds with only one or two clean stints in a race produce a noisy curve and a band that understates real uncertainty. Treat single-stint compounds as indicative only.

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Data source

The chart queries fct_cliff_prediction_features for the per-lap degradation history and dim_compounds_season for the cliff onset prior, via DuckDB-Wasm in the browser. This is a single-race view across 2018–2024 data. For the full model definition, see the fct_cliff_prediction_features reference.