What this pillar does
Tyre & Strategy answers two related questions: what did the tyres actually do, and when was the right time to stop? The features split along that line:- Observed. Cliff Survival Profile and Degradation Timeline describe what happened in real races how long tyres lasted and how much pace they lost.
- Decided. Pit Strategy Gantt shows whether each team’s actual stop matched the model’s optimal window, and how much time a late stop cost.
- Characterised. Tyre Recovery Forecast identifies whether post-cliff degradation is thermal (recoverable by backing off) or structural (not). Party Mode separates teams whose qualifying pace doesn’t carry into race trim.
mart_degradation_history_envelope and
fct_cliff_prediction_features; the strategy feature from int_pit_strategy_value. The
ML Pipeline page explains how the XGBoost cliff and degradation models
were built and validated.
Every feature in this pillar
Cliff Survival Profile
A Kaplan-Meier survival curve estimating the probability a stint reaches each lap without
hitting the degradation cliff, validated against where real stints actually ended.
Degradation Timeline
The average pace a tyre compound loses relative to fresh rubber across a race, with a
spread band showing how differently drivers managed the same tyre.
Pit Strategy Gantt
A Gantt of every stint in a race, marking where each tyre hit the cliff, where the model
says the optimal stop was, and how much time a late stop cost.
Tyre Recovery Forecast
Post-cliff tyre behaviour by compound: how often a worn tyre shows pace recovery when
the driver backs off, and whether the wear is thermal or structural.
Party Mode
The gap between each constructor’s single-lap qualifying pace and their sustained race
pace, separating qualifying specialists from race-spec cars.