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Some drivers light up over a single lap; others find their rhythm only once the race settles. This chart estimates each driver’s skill residual independently in qualifying and in the race both from the same additive decomposition, after removing car, tyre, fuel, dirty air, and track conditions and plots one against the other. Where a driver sits relative to the diagonal tells you which direction they specialise.

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What it shows

Each point is one driver-season on two skill axes:
  • Qualifying skill (x): average residual from personal-best Q laps, with traffic and DNQ sessions excluded.
  • Race skill (y): average driver_skill_proxy_mean_s across race stints from fct_driver_skill_features.
  • Q−R delta: qualifying residual minus race residual. Negative means relatively faster in qualifying (qualifying specialist); positive means they gain more in race trim (race specialist).
  • Diagonal reference: marks equal qualifying and race skill; distance from it shows the direction and size of specialisation.
Residuals are on the absolute lap-time scale (seconds, negative = faster than the model predicts), so the two axes are directly comparable.
A minimum of 3 valid qualifying sessions per season is required for a driver to appear, so part-season entries may be absent.

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How to use it

  1. Select a season from the filter bar; the scatter reloads.
  2. Read position relative to the diagonal above it = stronger in the race, below it = stronger in qualifying.
  3. Hover a point for the driver, constructor, and both residuals.
  4. Export the data with the CSV button to rank drivers by Q−R delta yourself.

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Reading the signal correctly

Both axes are already car-corrected, so a qualifying specialist is fast on Saturday relative to what their car explains not simply because they have a fast car. The delta is a style signal, not an overall ranking: a driver can be excellent in both and still sit off the diagonal.
Qualifying residuals come from a small number of laps per weekend and are noisier than race residuals. Treat extreme qualifying positions with more caution than equally extreme race positions.

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Data source

The chart queries int_qualifying_decomposed (qualifying residuals) and fct_driver_skill_features (race residuals) via DuckDB-Wasm in the browser. The data window covers 2018–2025. For the full model definitions, see the int_qualifying_decomposed reference and the fct_driver_skill_features reference.