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Some drivers light up over a single lap; others find their rhythm only once the race settles. This chart estimates each driver’s skill residual independently in qualifying and in the race both from the same seven-term decomposition, after removing car, tyre, fuel, dirty air, and conditions and plots one against the other. Where a driver sits relative to the diagonal tells you which direction they specialise.

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What it shows

Each point is one driver-season on two skill axes:
  • Qualifying skill (x): average residual from personal-best Q laps, with traffic and DNQ sessions excluded.
  • Race skill (y): average driver_skill_proxy_mean_s across race stints from fct_driver_skill_features.
  • Q−R delta: qualifying residual minus race residual. Negative means relatively faster in qualifying (qualifying specialist); positive means they gain more in race trim (race specialist).
  • Diagonal reference: marks equal qualifying and race skill; distance from it shows the direction and size of specialisation.
Residuals are on the absolute lap-time scale (seconds, negative = faster than the model predicts), so the two axes are directly comparable.
A minimum of 3 valid qualifying sessions per season is required for a driver to appear, so part-season entries may be absent.

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How to use it

  1. Select a season from the filter bar; the scatter reloads.
  2. Read position relative to the diagonal above it = stronger in the race, below it = stronger in qualifying.
  3. Hover a point for the driver, constructor, and both residuals.
  4. Export the data with the CSV button to rank drivers by Q−R delta yourself.

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Reading the signal correctly

Both axes are already car-corrected, so a qualifying specialist is fast on Saturday relative to what their car explains not simply because they have a fast car. The delta is a style signal, not an overall ranking: a driver can be excellent in both and still sit off the diagonal.
Qualifying residuals come from a small number of laps per weekend and are noisier than race residuals. Treat extreme qualifying positions with more caution than equally extreme race positions.

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Data source

The chart queries int_qualifying_decomposed (qualifying residuals) and fct_driver_skill_features (race residuals) via DuckDB-Wasm in the browser. The data window covers 2018–2024. For the full model definitions, see the int_qualifying_decomposed reference and the fct_driver_skill_features reference.